I just received this email from the NASANews email list.  I've been subscribed for years and they have always sent out a mixture of news and promotional info, but with a serious tone.

I have no reason to doubt this is an official NASA press release.  If so, did the Dept. of Defense give Russ Kick photos of the Columbia ceremonies at Dover in 2003 in response to his Freedom of Information Act request for pictures of casualties coming in from Iraq?

I don't think this has been the subject of a diary entry yet.  At least I couldn't find it, if so.

There are Dean supporters in Washington who have been raising money to run radio ads supporting Dean on Friday.  Here's the link to donate.  They are asking that you donate to DFA instead if you haven't maxed out contributions yet.  I have, so I donated $50 for the Washington ads.  Here's Joan in Seattle's pitch for the radio ads.  More info is available by following the donate link.  

At last update, they had about $3600.  The ad is about ready to go and will run tomorrow.  It will be posted to the donation link when ready.

I think Dean did very well making a recovery/comeback in NH by spending a lot of time doing town hall meetings (covered by CSPAN) and interviews with local in-state media.  He should look to maximize that in some of the upcoming states, as they did with a series of interviews on Wednesday.  Not to mention all the morning show appearances on ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, etc.  Lots of people watch the morning shows and a 3 minute interview there could do a lot more good than a couple days worth of expensive ads that everyone just mutes on TV anyway.  This is free media and Dean is certainly still sought after for these interviews.  Especially smart now that the media seems to be feeling remorse for all the Dean bashing.

Dean may not be running an ad blitz going into Tuesday, but that doesn't mean he'll be invisible to the voters.  

This is not the profile of a man who gives me confidence he can win in November.  I am ABB, but he'd better have answers to the specific problems raised in these articles or be very good at sweeping it under the rug.  The Bush team will slay him on his record in Congress and aspects of his Vietnam service, for instance, if this article is correct.  Detractors got after Dean for things like saying the Iowa caucuses are a poor system and for yelling in a speech and such...check out what they could get Kerry on:

Cash and Kerry, part 1

Cash and Kerry, part 2

Disclaimer: I support Dean 200%

He certainly still has some.  I just spoke to friends of mine in Hanover, NH.  He is 82 and she is 77.  They are closely watching the race and are not swayed by "the speech", etc.  They will be casting votes for Dean on Tuesday.  

I think the series of town hall meetings Dean has been holding around the state this week should help.  According to the Dean blog over 1,500 people showed up for a meeting in Keene tonight.  The pictures confirm my sense that the average town meeting goer would tend to be in the over-35 bracket.  That's one of the demographics supposedly fleeing from Dean and is one he now has a chance to bring back.  

My sister and I (Dean Stormers) were in the long security check line at the airport in Des Moines Tuesday afternoon.  We struck up a conversation with a woman and her son who were for Kerry.  After congratulating them on his win, we asked what type of work they had done for the Kerry campaign.  She said that on caucus night they were "persuaders" for Kerry.  I asked what that ment and she said they would stand in the hallway outside the actual caucus room (a spillover area) and wait for people to come out.  At her caucus, the undecided group came out into the hallway to discuss and be courted by the various captains, etc.  The Kerry people had been told that once a voter set foot outside the caucus room they were fair game and anyone could talk to them.  So they would try to persuade the voter to go to Kerry.  The woman and her son were from Massachusetts.  Naturally, my sister and I took the position that their actions were illegal.  They countered that first of all it's not "illegal" in the sense that a legislature passed a law.  These are caucus rules set by the Democratic party.  Second, it is allowed (according to them) to stand in the hallway and have a conversation that is overheard by a voter.  They said there's no material difference between that and directly engaging the voter in conversation.  

We Stormers had been told that under no circumstances could we interact with ANY person at a caucus location.  If we were a van driver helping little old ladies into the caucuses we could help them to a seat, but must immediately leave without speaking to anyone.  Any action that could raise even a hint of impropriety was forbidden and we signed a statement to that effect.

I think everyone agrees that the Dean caucus captains were lacking in experience and the Dean organization was perhaps not prepared for the cutthroat tactics employed by the other campaigns in the actual caucuses.  The question is whether the tactics were legal hardball or illegal election fraud.

Apparently down the street at Kerry HQ there was an organized program of Kerry Persuaders who did intervene directly all over the state.  Election fraud?  What do you think?

Three days ago, on the 8th, the ARG NH numbers looked like this:

          5th-7th results

Dean 35%
Clark 18%
Kerry 12%
Lieberman 8%
Gephardt 6%
Edwards 3%
Undecided 16%

Dean had been falling from 39% past his usual 37% mark.  I predicted he would stablize within the MOE from 37%.  Clark had rapidly risen from 12% to 18% and I had this comment on him and the others:

Clark's ability to break into the 20s will depend largely on the undecideds now.  My gut tells me Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, Edwards, etc., are now at their core support levels.  They won't go much lower.  ...  I speculate Clark has taken about as many percentage points as he can get from the other candidates and now it's just a matter of how many of the 16% undecided go to him. ...  Kerry is probably at rock bottom or close to it.  He won't fall below 10% and will end up in 3rd unless Lieberman can overtake him.  If that happens... poor Kerry.

Here are the new numbers, already posted on the front page:

                       1/8-10   1/7-9   1/6-8   1/5-7

Dean         35       35      35      35
Clark         20       21      20      18
Kerry        10       10      11      12
Lieberman  9        8       8       8
Gephardt    4        4       5       6
Undecided 17       17      16      16    

So I was right about Dean stabilizing.  He apparently lost about 2% of soft support to Clark.   Kerry fell to my predicted minimum of 10%, giving up as many as 6 or 7 points to Clark.  Clark busted into the 20s briefly with this new support and is holding right around 20.  I still think he needs to start pulling in the undecideds in order to make forward progress from here.  Lieberman is looking like he could pass Kerry for third.  As previously noted: "poor Kerry" if that happens.  The number of undecideds has remained pretty steady, suggesting the candidates are basically just trading points.

Edwards has been the picture of consistency at 3% for days.  Likewise Kucinich at 2%.  Gep slides from 6% to 4%, apparently giving up one point to undecided and one point to Lieberman.

This is a spoof of the CFG ad that shows the farmer and his wife.  You know... Volvo driving, latte drinking, NPR listening, etc.  Well worth a click over there!!

Trying to pull the rug out from under Gephardt?  If so it certainly doesn't break my heart, especially since Gephardt is on Hardball right now talking about the "rumors" that Dean supporters are going to Iowa to pose as Iowa voters in the caucuses...not just to campaign for Dean.  Sleazy.

AFL-CIO is a nice coup for Dean.

Today's SurveyUSA poll of the race in Iowa shows Dean leading outside the MOE of 4%.  

2004 SurveyUSA Election Polls
Last Updated: 1/8/04

Dean: 29
Gephardt: 22
Kerry: 21
Edwards: 17
Other: 8%
Undecided: 3%

Data Collected 1/5/04 - 1/7/04
Sample Population 612 Likely Caucus-goers

Look at Kerry go!  If he overtakes Gephardt for 2nd place that would be huge.  2nd place in Iowa would give Kerry a boost going into New Hampshire.  Not, I think, big enough to win, but enough to keep him alive via two 2nd place finishes.  Gephardt would probably drop out if he takes 3rd, bringing Missouri even more into play 15 days later.

I have a few observations on the ARG NH tracking poll to date.

The last 7 days of results are shown oldest to newest, left to right.  The dates in question are the 3 day results released on 1/1 through 1/7.  MOE is about 4% on all of the days.  The candidates are grouped in tiers by their numbers.

          1st  2nd  3rd  4th  5th  6th  7th

Dean 37% 38% 39% 39% 37% 36% 35%

Clark 13% 13% 12% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Kerry 15% 14% 14% 14% 14% 13% 12%

Lieberman 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 8%
Gephardt 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Edwards 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Kucinich 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Other 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Undecided 19% 18% 16% 17% 16% 17% 16%

It looks like Dean is just fluctuating a little within the MOE.  His basic level of support is around 37%.  Good enough to win, barring some major development.  He has spiked upward from time to time, such as the week following the Gore endorsement, but always returns to the upper 30s.  The barrage of criticism from the other candidates may have stopped his forward progress in the numbers, but it isn't clear to me that he has lost anything either.

Clark could steal the news coverage on primary night if he breaks into the 20s.  It's interesting to note that 10 days ago Kerry was at 18% and Clark was at 12%.  As of the 7th, those numbers had swapped.  I don't think Clark can break 25%, just as I can't see Dean falling below 30% regardless, but even that would be an excellent showing heading into Feb 3rd.

Kerry is probably at rock bottom or close to it.  He won't fall below 10% and will end up in 3rd unless Lieberman can overtake him.  If that happens... poor Kerry.

Nobody else is in contention, unless Gephardt wins in IA and moves up to take 3rd in NH.  Otherwise he gets 5th behind Lieberman.

Clark's ability to break into the 20s will depend largely on the undecideds now.  My gut tells me Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, Edwards, etc., are now at their core support levels.  They won't go much lower.  It looks to me like Kerry's slide down to his core support level has been a shift to Clark.  In other words, the other candidates aren't moving much and the six point rise of Clark has been a six point drop for Kerry.  I speculate Clark has taken about as many percentage points as he can get from the other candidates and now it's just a matter of how many of the 16% undecided go to him.  On primary night I believe they will break mainly to Dean and Clark, securing their 1st and 2nd place finishes respectively.